Monday, December 13, 2004

And Now the Birds

Add birds to the ever growing list of species in decline, going extinct, or are expected to go extinct in the near future. According to the reports, somewhere between 10 and twenty-five percent will go extinct in this century. Again. I find these figures somewhat conservative in that they are only taken from current levels and do not take into account the cumulative affect of damage to multiple species and the eco-system over-all. We are seeing this over and over. When examining the state of affairs currently, scientists generally isolate variables for a given species and make the resulting predictions. This is the only way to come up with any reliable data at all. Unfortunately, the real picture does require a much more complex model than this to some up with an accurate analysis for all species. So complex in fact that we don't have an accurate system to date to take into account all the variables at work. It is for this reason that I almost always think that these predictions are conservative and that our understanding will grow leaps and bounds as we see with our own eyes how this affect compounds at what I suspect will be an exponential rate. At any rate, what good is it to have a 100% understanding of the thing that kills us all, once it's too late to change any of it.

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